Thought provoking video regarding automakers worldwide

jaguar36 said:

I own two because the performance, convience and packaging is just way better than an IC engine car. And no I don't own any other gas powered cars.

Click to expand...

Well that's fine for you but you CHOSE to go that way. Trying to force that choice on the rest of us as some in government propose would be lousy.

Scottl said:

Well that's fine for you but you CHOSE to go that way. Trying to force that choice on the rest of us as some in government propose would be lousy.

Click to expand...

Why ?
Governments mandate airbags,flights rules, travel, border checks,all sorts of stuff all the time.
E.g. The price of US gas for cars is a government mandate.
Weather it is good or bad is for the us popula to decide via their representatives.
The US chooses fracking--fine .. Your choice.

ATM tsla is the worlds nr 1 EV automaker, by value and advanced battery production capacity and every technical measure known to man.
And a huge fast growing employer of US workers, getting great benefits aka wealth from their stock options even for the assy line workers.
Whats wrong with getting assy workers a piece of the pie ?
Used to be iirc 2000 shares pre split worth about 500k over 3 years.
Yes, most tsla line workers have shares worth 500k+.
Good for them !
Nothing wrong with that, imo.
Hard work, overtime sometimes mandated, yes. Well paid, yes.
Fair enough.

Whats wrong with tesla creating all sorts of huge factories employing us workers at high wages, plus exceptional stock options ?
With a company of 16 years of demonstrated growth and excellence in pretty much all areas.
Middle management perhaps excepted.

No-one is forcing anyone to buy an ev.
Facilitating the global ev business is creating a huge pool of wealth, good jobs, and future prosperity, and less reliance on oil and gas.
Fair enough.

About 12 years ago the elon musk "gigafactory" concept was published with a 35 GWh planned capacity within some years.
This was more than the global lion battery total mfct. capacity at the time.
Today in 2022 china alone produces over 600 GWh.

The more batteries are produced, the cheaper they get, and the better they get, because everyone competes with everyone.
And the more money involved, the more scientists, labs, innovations get involved .. leading to better products.

There is no reason to think that batteries wont get 10x better by energy density, and power, and 5-10x cheaper by capacity.
Perhaps even much cheaper, or better.
A flashlight sized battery might someday power an airliner, or a jet.

Within the last 15 years the cost of EV solar panels by kW has fallen by about 99 - 99.5%.
Yes, more than 100x cheaper.
So did microprocessors, pcs, hdd, ssd, phones, servo motors, linear guides, steppers, lots of stuff.

There is a lot of reason and history to expect the same to happen to EV batteries within a decade.

IMO, 10yrs or less you’ll see automotive industry consolidation like you’ve never seen before. Like it or not, BEV’s will dominate because they have fewer parts and require 40-50% less labor to build.

The only thing that will separate manufacturers apart is how they bend their sheetmetal or aluminum. Most everything else will be common, off the shelf parts made by the same suppliers supporting different auto manufacturers.

hanermo said:

No-one is forcing anyone to buy an ev.

Click to expand...

Today they aren't, but alot of places will be starting in 2030

hanermo said:

There is no reason to think that batteries wont get 10x better by energy density, and power, and 5-10x cheaper by capacity.

Click to expand...

In the last decade battery technology has not improved dramatically. Tesla's flagship Model S sedan had a energy density of 157 watt-hours/kg in 2012. Today the just released Model S Plaid is only slightly better at 181wh/kg. 15% better in 10 years is not particularly impressive.

Hobby Shop said:

The only thing that will separate manufacturers apart is how they bend their sheetmetal or aluminum. Most everything else will be common, off the shelf parts made by the same suppliers supporting different auto manufacturers.

Click to expand...

This seems to be a common view of EVs from folks who don't like them. It certainly isn't true though. Go drive a Tesla, a Taycan, a EQS and a Lucid, they are all vastly different cars.

jaguar36 said:

This seems to be a common view of EVs from folks who don't like them. It certainly isn't true though. Go drive a Tesla, a Taycan, a EQS and a Lucid, they are all vastly different cars.

Click to expand...

Yep. Right now they’re all different because it’s still an immature market by volume. Tesla “might” make it alone but I bet they’ll eventually have to merge or buy someone out to survive.

The whole game changes once the big manufacturers (GM, VW, Toyota, Honda, etc) go all in on electric.

jaguar36 said:

Today they aren't, but alot of places will be starting in 2030

In the last decade battery technology has not improved dramatically. Tesla's flagship Model S sedan had a energy density of 157 watt-hours/kg in 2012. Today the just released Model S Plaid is only slightly better at 181wh/kg. 15% better in 10 years is not particularly impressive.

Click to expand...

The tech actually has improved dramatically, but mostly it has been used to decrease costs for tsla et al rather than to pack the best tech in the pack.
Lion costs / kg have decreased about 6-8% y/y exponentially, and there is no reason to think this will stop.
In 2012 lion battery costs were estimated at 250$/W and up.
In 2022 100$ are a consensus level, and 60$ are generally seen as "near" within a few years.

Charging speeds went from 25 kW to 130 kW and up.
Inverter tech improved by 10x. Tsla leads in this, by a large margin.
Inverter tech aka vfd for 700+ amps and 400v and ancillary loads is hard to do.
And make it last, in a sealed unit, no fan, and very cheap to produce (500$).

It´s very hard to make a battery that can deliver peak energy at 400 V / 700 amps (tsla) and last for 10 years.
Peak loading and peak charging are hard to do, while maintaining longevity.

The tsla models batteries mass around 500 kg.
There is no particular need to make them lighter - unless costs decrease a lot.
The heavy battery is a huge major factor in safety - also with no upfront motor.

Re-gen means the battery mass does not affect economy/efficiency/range in any major way.
My volvo v60 4x has == the same 2100 kg mass as any the of tsla models.
The volvo is about the safest ice car there is, and about near the top in efficiency.
The tsla is 3x cheaper to run and very very much safer.

Your numbers at 181 wh/kg seem to refer to whole system energy vs mass.
This might be right -- I havent looked at this for a while.
But the battery pack density should be about 230w/kg .. afaik, afairc.

My comments re: tsla also apply to all good EV cars in general.
I use tsla as an example only because I followed it closely during their rise, and am familiar with a lot of the tech.
It may be that the ioniq VW line "gets good" within a few years.
Lets see ..
The cars seem to be fine, but batteries are an unknown.
VFD, home charging, are pathetic.
Efficiency and regen are unknown. Reliability is unknown.

VW also seems to be starting alliances and factories for batteries left/right ..
This is likely disastrous.
They simply will not succeed -- with mix/match batteries and VFDs and random sw settings for charge/discharge/stuff.
Mad.
Should fire all the managers in charge of the tech and appoint someone who has an idea about what they are doing and how operators make tech work reliably in large-scale critical installations.

Hobby Shop said:

Yep. Right now they’re all different because it’s still an immature market by volume. Tesla “might” make it alone but I bet they’ll eventually have to merge or buy someone out to survive.

The whole game changes once the big manufacturers (GM, VW, Toyota, Honda, etc) go all in on electric.

Click to expand...

Yeah, right. Ironic.
Tsla could buy all the big manufacturers if they wanted.
Tsla is about 1.2M units/yr volume, going on to 2M, with about 60k-70$+ by avg ticket size.
And triple the margins of anyone else.
And growing 50%++ exponential every year for 14 years.
And hell of cash in hand.
And the safest cars in the world.
And the most satisfied customers - in the world. In history.

Tsla makes more advanced (better) drive units aka industrial vfds for harsh service than all the big 4 autos combined.
And there are exactly zero similar units of similar capacity from any worldwide supplier like bosch, siemens, magma, etc.
And it is really hard to make them for high power auto service cheaply.

Same applies to the electrical motors.
Siemens cannot make and sell electrical motors as good as tesla, because it relies on a huge business selling similar stuff like 200 kW VFDs for 14.000$ -- vs 500$-- to tsla.

It´s really hard to make a small light very high power vfd (charger, heater) cheaply. Very high reliability. Cheap.
Tsla did at least 14 versions over 12+ years.
This was brilliant.
The point is - one cannot buy similar tech from anywhere in the world quickly. At any price. 100M$ wont get you this.
And it is very hard to get reliable high power car electric stuff. Because no-one makes it in scale.
Recent bolt recall is an example.
And previous leaf mess.

Given a 100M$ open contract on the vfd I would suggest not promise trial units in 24 months, with major re-tooling almost certain, for 500k /yr production 1 yr after.
Yes, I mostly would not easily take a 100M$ contract against tsla power electronics and drive units. 1k$ qty 1M.
Just like I would not at all take a contract against flextronics to make iphone shells. 7$ qty 400M.

A lot of my life I made very good stuff for little money and with little resources - often very expensive stuff like 1M€ (10M today) video stuff.
Later all sorts of very large scale very expensive stuff. And very very large scale it stuff.
Later dealing the worlds most succeful vmcs (haas) with fantastic success.

E:
I´m quite sure I could develop a VFD and a motor unit for e. GM, for 500 $ / 8-1100 $ marginal cost each, 500 hp.
Minimum 3 years, because the aging and production scaleup take time, and one cannot afford massive failures.
Im also pretty sure they will never hire someone like me for it, and whoever they get will be incompetent, eejit, relatively.

So far, all the major auto makers have totally failed to make a good ev with good charging good vfd and good integration and good production costs.
In 2012-2022, 10 years.
They have recently lost 20% of their stock value, and 20% less sales, and are about to go bk, again.
Due to bank covenants and bonds, aka debts.

jaguar36 said:

This seems to be a common view of EVs from folks who don't like them. It certainly isn't true though. Go drive a Tesla, a Taycan, a EQS and a Lucid, they are all vastly different cars.

Click to expand...

Very true. Some brands use resistive heaters for cabin heat while others use more efficient heat pumps. There are of course also major differences in everything from driveline components to controls. In short, they are not simply scaled up battery operated toys.

That said, while I recognize the advanced technology of many modern BEVs I still don't want one at this point in my life and those who think it is ok for government to force them on all of us will get a bitter surprise someday when they realize that such thinking leads to LIMITLESS government power that will eventually reduce humans to the status of livestock.

A government big enough to give you everything you want is big enough to take away everything that you have.

Scottl said:

when they realize that such thinking leads to LIMITLESS government power that will eventually reduce humans to the status of livestock.

Click to expand...

We're already there.
When your representatives pass a law, and then refuse to enforce it, you've arrived at your destination.

Hobby Shop said:

IMO, 10yrs or less you’ll see automotive industry consolidation like you’ve never seen before. Like it or not, BEV’s will dominate because they have fewer parts and require 40-50% less labor to build.

The only thing that will separate manufacturers apart is how they bend their sheetmetal or aluminum. Most everything else will be common, off the shelf parts made by the same suppliers supporting different auto manufacturers.

Click to expand...

In the U.S. auto manufacturing will increasingly become partnered with the U.S. gov't. GM has already been 'saved' once or twice. Ford has remained somewhat independent with Tesla being sort of a wild card. Ultimately all will depend on gov't support supply chain wise especially with electronics and batteries.
And yes....they all will be essentially the same product.

standardparts said:

In the U.S. auto manufacturing will increasingly become partnered with the U.S. gov't. GM has already been 'saved' once or twice. Ford has remained somewhat independent with Tesla being sort of a wild card. Ultimately all will depend on gov't support supply chain wise especially with electronics and batteries.
And yes....they all will be essentially the same product.

Click to expand...

Probably won't have much of a choice with the things some other countries are doing. Just saw an article about Chinese .gov purchasing bulk iron for the whole country to get a super-low price and then parceling it out to individual companies.

Interesting always to see how any government will facilitate in various ways things of this kind of nature. We through legislation have supported the mail service in the country where improvements in fast timely delivery were improved by entrepreneurs and government. Always the government will usually exert influence.
I know of no working government which would not foster such efforts. China has a heavy influence in their system. I do not believe though that it is the best model to follow yet for them it is effective.

Because of the history of Communism I can not ignore when it has been brutal. Granted brutality and oppression are not patented in the world that where ever there are people excesses will happen.

Interestingly enough while some automakers are going all in on BEVs Toyota, the worlds largest automaker is planning to produce a wide mix of vehicles with only one third of them electric by 2030.

Critics would suggest that Toyota is foolish to go against the herd but I wouldn't bet against the world's most successful automaker.


And FYI, while a Prius that can get up to 56 MPG may not satisfy the green cult's lust for zero carbon at breakneck speed that is less than half the average consumption. Progress through technology rather than technology as a slave to ideology.

And I know someone who just bought a new RAV 4 hybrid and LOVES it. Great mileage and great range without the worry of trying to find charging stations.

Scottl said:

Interestingly enough while some automakers are going all in on BEVs Toyota, the worlds largest automaker is planning to produce a wide mix of vehicles with only one third of them electric by 2030.

Critics would suggest that Toyota is foolish to go against the herd but I wouldn't bet against the world's most successful automaker.

Why Toyota – the world's largest automaker – isn't all-in on electric vehicles

Toyota doesn't believe battery-electric vehicles are the only solution to producing more sustainable vehicles and achieving carbon neutrality.

www.cnbc.com

And FYI, while a Prius that can get up to 56 MPG may not satisfy the green cult's lust for zero carbon at breakneck speed that is less than half the average consumption. Progress through technology rather than technology as a slave to ideology.

And I know someone who just bought a new RAV 4 hybrid and LOVES it. Great mileage and great range without the worry of trying to find charging stations.

Click to expand...

That is the CONSERVATIVE approach to design.....So it must be shunned at all cost's in todays world.

DDoug said:

That is the CONSERVATIVE approach to design.....So it must be shunned at all cost's in todays world.

Click to expand...

I would go even further and say that it is the RATIONAL approach to design. And as I've long said there is nothing rational about the common approach to "climate change". Instead of allowing the ingenuity of man to create more and more efficient versions they try to push us into a one size fits all approach that would be unsuitable for many.

And let's not forget the push for self-driving vehicles and the promise that once they are fully realized humans would no longer be allowed to drive.

Scottl said:

Interestingly enough while some automakers are going all in on BEVs Toyota, the worlds largest automaker is planning to produce a wide mix of vehicles with only one third of them electric by 2030.

Critics would suggest that Toyota is foolish to go against the herd but I wouldn't bet against the world's most successful automaker.

Click to expand...

I discussed this pretty thorougly way back on post 352. Toyota have spent close to $14 billion on fuel cell and hydrogen tech, and still dont have a vehicle, after 30 years, that anyone wants to buy.
This does not make them smart...
It is possible that, in another 30 years and another 14 Billion, they may have a competitively priced hydrogen fuel cell car- but I wont be alive then.
I have owned Toyotas, and liked them.
But I dont think the failure to commit to EVs is going to prove they are geniuses.

Ries said:

I discussed this pretty thorougly way back on post 352. Toyota have spent close to $14 billion on fuel cell and hydrogen tech, and still dont have a vehicle, after 30 years, that anyone wants to buy.
This does not make them smart...
It is possible that, in another 30 years and another 14 Billion, they may have a competitively priced hydrogen fuel cell car- but I wont be alive then.
I have owned Toyotas, and liked them.
But I dont think the failure to commit to EVs is going to prove they are geniuses.

Click to expand...

First of all, hydrogen fuel cell cars are EVs even though they are not BEVs. Hybrids are also a form of EV although one that still consumes carbon based fuels.

Your first sentence says it all, people don't want to buy hydrogen vehicles, largely because the same media and "influencers" touting BEVs constantly mention how dangerous hydrogen fuel is and use the Hindenburg as a scare tactic. Another reason is a gross lack of hydrogen fueling infrastructure. There are also huge numbers of people who don't want to buy a BEV. A significant reason is lack of charging infrastructure, especially in rural areas.

Toyota sells vehicles worldwide, including many places where there is a lack of electric infrastructure and they are actually making a wise global business decision that ignores those in western countries who say they are not going "zero carbon" fast enough. In many remote parts of the world there are only dirt roads and refueling is done by hand pumping gasoline or diesel out of drums. Try the equivalent of THAT with your favorite brand of BEV.

Ries said:

I discussed this pretty thorougly way back on post 352. Toyota have spent close to $14 billion on fuel cell and hydrogen tech, and still dont have a vehicle, after 30 years, that anyone wants to buy.
This does not make them smart...
It is possible that, in another 30 years and another 14 Billion, they may have a competitively priced hydrogen fuel cell car- but I wont be alive then.
I have owned Toyotas, and liked them.
But I dont think the failure to commit to EVs is going to prove they are geniuses.

Click to expand...

I very much doubt 14 B or anything close to it .. but ..
Anyway.. it is technically impossible to make a *good* hydrogen fuel cell car because the energy efficiency is 5x less, even if every system should be 100% efficient in and out.
Compared to a 10 year old lion system using 18650 cells, aka tesla, early model s.

Hydrogen is the smallest-particle most slippery gas we know of, and has relatively low energy density.
Hydrogen eats seals, leaks through metal containers, it´s just really hard to store.
And hydrogen in scale is just oil, made by reforming oil via some high pressure steaming process.

Japan aka toyota really wanted to get hydrogen economies going because they have huge methane hydrate deposits on their continental shelfs, and it would free them into energy independence.
Obviously, toyota engineers know the physics, but getting paid/permitted by the politicos they pretend hydrogen could someday be some good ..

Obviously, hydrogen works technically, and was partly used in gas pipelines early 1900s, and obviously hydrogen can be used as an energy storage medium.
But it will never be a dense as good lion batteries - by 5x.
But if free hydrogen was pumped somewhere it might perhaps be useful.

First, we won´t get free hydrogen in scale, second, it´s a volatile very explosive compound.
And also causes hydrogen embrittlement in metallic containers, shafts, seals, pumps.

Storing hydrogen is really hard.
Anything hydrogen is really hard.
Anything really hard is more expensive than really easy - like room-temp lion batteries with 10 years+ useful service lives.

eKretz said:

Probably won't have much of a choice with the things some other countries are doing. Just saw an article about Chinese .gov purchasing bulk iron for the whole country to get a super-low price and then parceling it out to individual companies.

Click to expand...

It was announced somewhere around mid year. Dunno about a "super" low price happening, it's not that far off what the Japanese and Korean conglomerates have been doing for decades with the major players here.

hanermo said:

First, we won´t get free hydrogen in scale

Click to expand...

There's a couple of billionaires locally putting their cash on the line for electrolysis plants. It's supposedly coming, because it can be produced so cheaply via ~ 50+ million petajoules of solar falling here annually.

The personal vehicle hydrogen transportation hurdles, Toyota and Mazda must have been playing with it for over 30 years already, unless there's a tech breakthrough I won't hold my breath! On the plus side, new power stations will be able to run it and maybe, just maybe .30/kWh power bills will disappear.

There's also a proposed solar array to power around 25% of Singapore via DC cable in the pipeline. Battery required is around 200 times the size of the world's current largest battery situated in South Australia......which would make a very tidy blaze if it ever caught on fire.