I keep hearing that this winter will be bad for manufacturing in Europe.

michiganbuck · Friday at 9:16 AM

The economy under Putin improved quite a lot, then he repeated history and tried to invade Kyiv, not so brilliant of a strongman. So Russian history is a good counter-example of that riddle you posted.

In his mind's eye likely he thought he was justified, and it turned bigger than he wanted.
I hope it can be ender with not escalating to a big war.

Ox · Friday at 9:24 AM

dcsipo said:
This is the context of Russian history.
Where do you want to start?
Let's pick 882
Novgorod sort of the start of the Russians, then Oleg invaded Kyiv. (Some history to be repeated.)
Moscow did not even exist until after the Mongol invasion in 1237-1240. there was no clear Strongman until Ivan the Great of 1480; Ivan called himself the terrible. Not sure how much of a good time was created under his rein. But since his son Feodor left no heirs in 1598, chaos ensued till the first Romanov came to power in 1613. After that, Russia was ruled by strong men and a woman till 1917. You can look at all the Tsars and Tsarina; they all led an empire of impoverished peasants, a small elite in a few significant towns, building the foundation for the Bolshevik revolution. Strong man Lenin created the GULAG and reigned over a bloody civil war till 1922; not sure what good times were made; then came Stalin, who killed more people than anyone else in history; many good times, then WWII. Solzhenitsyn. has a pretty good account of the soviet good times. Kruschev and Brezhnev were not much of strong men in the soviet style compared to the two before them, but life for soviet citizens improved slowly. Perestroika and Gorbachev came, and the soviet system went. Was Gorbachev a strongman? Not clear. But he made one of the most consequential decisions in 20th-century history. Yeltsin to Putin was a straight shot to continual authoritarian rule. The economy under Putin improved quite a lot, then he repeated history and tried to invade Kyiv, not so brilliant of a strongman. So Russian history is a good counter-example of that riddle you posted.

What is more accurate is that in a democracy, the population will oscillate between left-leaning and right-leaning choices. This is most likely because every candidate will over-promise to win an election and underdeliver when faced with the reality of governance.

Corp Maxwell Klinger / Col Potter is in there somewhere....

"Honest Col Potter - I would not lie to you!"

-----------------

Think Snow Eh!
Ox

Freedommachine · Friday at 10:59 AM

dcsipo said:
So Russian history is a good counter-example of that riddle you posted.

It is not meant to describe the demeanor of political figures or a nation's leader. It is a proverb on the cyclical nature of human civilization.

dcsipo said:
What is more accurate is that in a democracy, the population will oscillate between left-leaning and right-leaning choices. This is most likely because every candidate will over-promise to win an election and underdeliver when faced with the reality of governance.

Democracy is two wolves and a sheep deciding what's for dinner.

There is no team red or team blue. Democratic government is nothing more than a collection of society's worst narcissistic demagogues; all fighting for a bigger piece of the power pie while putting on a dog and pony show for the masses.

This should be obvious to anyone living under a democratic government for the last 10 years. If you don't see it, then you are the masses.

Demagogue - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

standardparts · Friday at 12:08 PM

Freedommachine said:
"Slavery for thee but not for me!"

Forcing your grandkids lose everything you've worked your life to obtain... Yeah, that'll show em'!

Hard times create strong men.
Strong men create good times.
Good times create weak men.
Weak men create hard times.

"Hard Times"? Maybe we better not worry about Europe so much and take a look at our own country. Seems like Janet does this once a year(?)...wonder if this time it's for real.

Nice key talking points...."Default"..."Extraordinary Measures". Yawn. Let the whole works crash and burn.

U.S. will hit its debt limit Thursday, start taking steps to avoid default, Yellen warns Congress

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, "It is unlikely that cash and extraordinary measures will be exhausted before early June."

www.cnbc.com

hanermo · Friday at 1:16 PM

standardparts said:
Nice key talking points...."Default"..."Extraordinary Measures". Yawn. Let the whole works crash and burn.

U.S. will hit its debt limit Thursday, start taking steps to avoid default, Yellen warns Congress

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, "It is unlikely that cash and extraordinary measures will be exhausted before early June."

www.cnbc.com

Do You have any idea of how bad this crash and burn would be for the whole world ???
"Crash and burn" would lead to major famine in most oecd economies, and a total collapse in the world economies, and world total production of resources.

If the US dollar (or euro) was not stable, and shipments of gas, crude oil, foodstuffs, consumer goods, 14.000 containers per day to the us, were not insured against theft and default, then ..
the refineries making the gas would not produce any more for the US market.
the insurers would not insure us shipping, leading to no shipping.
the manufacturers of goods like "white goods" aka refrigerators, fridges, dryers, washers, would stop making and selling to the us market.
the us producers of cars like gm and ford could not make cars any more, due to shortage of parts.
the us consumers of us cars in the main could not buy any more cars, because their jobs collapsed due to the value of the dollar, and because they worked for something related to global shipping like cars, oil/gas, transport, autos, mining, refining, banking, housing, manufacturing, etc.

The US would suffer the worst - it´s the most highly leveraged and dynamic economy in the world.
The rest of the world, mainly oecd, india, russia, and china, australia would work together for their own survival.

All of the above is because of one thing.
Deficit spending.
This means the government spends money it does not have - and borrows it from international money markets.
Effectively, an IOU on the national credit card.

michiganbuck · Friday at 1:21 PM

Someday The Grubberment will have enough money..Never happen.
They would throw it in the dumpster just to be able to say they need more.
A darn shame

BoxcarPete · Friday at 3:29 PM

hanermo said:
Do You have any idea of how bad this crash and burn would be for the whole world ???
"Crash and burn" would lead to major famine in most oecd economies, and a total collapse in the world economies, and world total production of resources.

If the US dollar (or euro) was not stable, and shipments of gas, crude oil, foodstuffs, consumer goods, 14.000 containers per day to the us, were not insured against theft and default, then ..
the refineries making the gas would not produce any more for the US market.
the insurers would not insure us shipping, leading to no shipping.
the manufacturers of goods like "white goods" aka refrigerators, fridges, dryers, washers, would stop making and selling to the us market.
the us producers of cars like gm and ford could not make cars any more, due to shortage of parts.
the us consumers of us cars in the main could not buy any more cars, because their jobs collapsed due to the value of the dollar, and because they worked for something related to global shipping like cars, oil/gas, transport, autos, mining, refining, banking, housing, manufacturing, etc.

The US would suffer the worst - it´s the most highly leveraged and dynamic economy in the world.
The rest of the world, mainly oecd, india, russia, and china, australia would work together for their own survival.

All of the above is because of one thing.
Deficit spending.
This means the government spends money it does not have - and borrows it from international money markets.
Effectively, an IOU on the national credit card.

Listen, the USD is already FIAT currency, which means it's only valuable because Uncle Sam says so. Once that's no longer true, it becomes valueless. We've blown past the debt ceiling so many times already and people still want the USD as a reserve currency, what's one more time just to fuel the spending habit? Not like anyone wants the consequences listed above, so just let us be and we'll keep inflating away the debt, OK? Uncle Sam says he's good for it...

Freedommachine · Friday at 3:51 PM

hanermo said:
Do You have any idea of how bad this crash and burn would be for the whole world ???
"Crash and burn" would lead to major famine in most oecd economies, and a total collapse in the world economies, and world total production of resources.

hanermo said:
All of the above is because of one thing.
Deficit spending.
This means the government spends money it does not have - and borrows it from international money markets.
Effectively, an IOU on the national credit card.

This is exactly why they continue to spend so recklessly. There should have been multiple market corrections of varying degrees over the last 50 years. A crash is a natural correction, they need to be allowed to happen, "kicking the can" has never worked and literally only makes the situation worse.

Instead, the government rewards bad behavior; bailing out the "too big to fail" and passing the debt onto W2 taxpayers.

We keep letting it happen because everyone is too afraid to face the consequences.

Currency crash is a possible consequence of a true free market. Everything has a price and the political class never learn.

I'm with @standardparts Let. it. burn.

dcsipo · Friday at 4:02 PM

Freedommachine said:
This is exactly why they continue to spend so recklessly. There should have been multiple market corrections of varying degrees over the last 50 years. A crash is a natural correction, they need to be allowed to happen, "kicking the can" has never worked and literally only makes the situation worse.

Instead, the government rewards bad behavior; bailing out the "too big to fail" and passing the debt onto W2 taxpayers.

We keep letting it happen because everyone is too afraid to face the consequences.

Currency crash is a possible consequence of a true free market. Everything has a price and the political class never learn.

I'm with @standardparts Let. it. burn.

They make you all freak out over this chart:

When you all should be freaking over this one:

Significant tax cuts passed by Congress during the presidencies of George W. Bush and Donald Trump have played a large part in the subsequent deterioration of government finances and the resulting growth in the national debt.

hanermo · Friday at 5:59 PM

Freedommachine said:
This is exactly why they continue to spend so recklessly.
Instead, the government rewards bad behavior; bailing out the "too big to fail" and passing the debt onto W2 taxpayers.

We keep letting it happen because everyone is too afraid to face the consequences.

I'm with @standardparts Let. it. burn.

Completely true.
-They continue to spend, because the politicos don´t care, and get big bribes every year for not caring.
-And the US (other countries as well) voting popula, in the main, get bribes from the politicos to vote for them .. thus assuring the voters never elect anyone against the system.
-And the "too big to fail" argument is used.
-And for about 40 years, politicos have learned that they can pay any pork, bribes, spending, on the national credit card, and get rich and powerful, without any personal consequences except even better jobs and perks and company directorships with huge salaries

You are completely correct.

BUT ...
"let it burn" is a totally irrational, excessive, near-sociopathic response.

Much as it would perhaps be pleasant to contemplate "burning", in reality the rich would fly off to their private island kingdoms, and watch from satellite tv as the world self destructs, and global famine and pandemics reduce the popula to 1900 levels, doable without mechanised industry and global shipping and energy refining.

"Politics" is commonly terrible and distasteful - and often rewards the biggest crooks.
But the only other option, war, is, by far, the worse, most horrible, option.

"We make peace with our enemies, not our friends"..

"Let it burn .. economically" would not bankrupt the rich politicos but would destroy the modern economy, most especially in the US where little basic manufacturing, refining, is done these days vs the size of the economy.
The US makes bank, deservedly, with hollywood, IT services, facebook, google, oracle, etc. contributing several T$ into the economy.
And financing, perhaps another few T$, perhaps deservedly.
Someone needs to fund the oracles and microsofts and googles and tesla and spacex and others and the US does this better than any other country, by far.
If the financers and venture capital guys get too rich - that is not negative. (It´s unfair, but they stole nothing. They made wealth, not stole it).

Let it burn is like the old observation from the roman, Tacitus, after a victorious war.
"they make a desert, and call it peace".

standardparts · Saturday at 7:58 AM

hanermo said:
Completely true.
-They continue to spend, because the politicos don´t care, and get big bribes every year for not caring.
-And the US (other countries as well) voting popula, in the main, get bribes from the politicos to vote for them .. thus assuring the voters never elect anyone against the system.
-And the "too big to fail" argument is used.
-And for about 40 years, politicos have learned that they can pay any pork, bribes, spending, on the national credit card, and get rich and powerful, without any personal consequences except even better jobs and perks and company directorships with huge salaries

You are completely correct.

BUT ...
"let it burn" is a totally irrational, excessive, near-sociopathic response.

Much as it would perhaps be pleasant to contemplate "burning", in reality the rich would fly off to their private island kingdoms, and watch from satellite tv as the world self destructs, and global famine and pandemics reduce the popula to 1900 levels, doable without mechanised industry and global shipping and energy refining.

"Politics" is commonly terrible and distasteful - and often rewards the biggest crooks.
But the only other option, war, is, by far, the worse, most horrible, option.

"We make peace with our enemies, not our friends"..

"Let it burn .. economically" would not bankrupt the rich politicos but would destroy the modern economy, most especially in the US where little basic manufacturing, refining, is done these days vs the size of the economy.
The US makes bank, deservedly, with hollywood, IT services, facebook, google, oracle, etc. contributing several T$ into the economy.
And financing, perhaps another few T$, perhaps deservedly.
Someone needs to fund the oracles and microsofts and googles and tesla and spacex and others and the US does this better than any other country, by far.
If the financers and venture capital guys get too rich - that is not negative. (It´s unfair, but they stole nothing. They made wealth, not stole it).

Let it burn is like the old observation from the roman, Tacitus, after a victorious war.
"they make a desert, and call it peace".

"totally irrational, excessive, near-sociopathic response."......

Yeah, that's me all right, no cares-don't give two shits if the world economy crashes...because, truthfully, that is not about to happen, although some countries would feel more pain than others but that's the way it has always been. In the U.S. the money-printing-presses only need to have someone ramp up the money supply. Of course you guys being tied to the EU can't really do that. But we can.

Maybe my tin-foil is slipping but I'd guess that the guy calling the shots over at the WEF would actually see benefit in a massive reset of the world's economy.

Kind of humbling in a way that my words provoke such an emotional response from you.....You made my day!

Ox · Saturday at 11:08 AM

dcsipo said:
They make you all freak out over this chart:
View attachment 383910
When you all should be freaking over this one:
View attachment 383908
Significant tax cuts passed by Congress during the presidencies of George W. Bush and Donald Trump have played a large part in the subsequent deterioration of government finances and the resulting growth in the national debt.

... maybe ...

The $ isn't worth much until it is in the hands of the person. I have a C corp, and I really wish that I could save for equipment within it'self, but the Corp is considered it's own person (and I git that too) and so any "profit" is taxed. (at what? 21% or some such these days?) And then if I take out $ later, it git's taxed on my personal side as well. So, the best thing to doo is to have a good handle on your status in your 12th month and draw it down to nigh zero before hand so that you only git hit with the tax once.

Now, as I understand it, big corps need to show their profit first, git hit with the tax, and then disburse what's left to the shareholders. I'm guessing that there may be a work-around for that somehow?

Or maybe it is b/c Corp America doesn't have the margins that were once there, ESPECIALLY in post war America, where the US was in the "good years".

I'm afraid that Chart II is only a slice of the pie, and there is enough there to keep Paul Harvey busy for a month....

edit:
If anything, that chart shows that war is profitable on the homefront, while your nephews are getting blown away in some other hemisphere of the world...

---------------------

Think Snow Eh!
Ox

dcsipo · Sunday at 8:11 PM

Ox said:
... maybe ...

The $ isn't worth much until it is in the hands of the person. I have a C corp, and I really wish that I could save for equipment within it'self, but the Corp is considered it's own person (and I git that too) and so any "profit" is taxed. (at what? 21% or some such these days?) And then if I take out $ later, it git's taxed on my personal side as well. So, the best thing to doo is to have a good handle on your status in your 12th month and draw it down to nigh zero before hand so that you only git hit with the tax once.

Now, as I understand it, big corps need to show their profit first, git hit with the tax, and then disburse what's left to the shareholders. I'm guessing that there may be a work-around for that somehow?

Or maybe it is b/c Corp America doesn't have the margins that were once there, ESPECIALLY in post war America, where the US was in the "good years".

I'm afraid that Chart II is only a slice of the pie, and there is enough there to keep Paul Harvey busy for a month....

edit:
If anything, that chart shows that war is profitable on the homefront, while your nephews are getting blown away in some other hemisphere of the world...

---------------------

Think Snow Eh!
Ox

Oh boy, the trials and tribulations of running a C corp. My company used to be a C until I changed it to an S; the reasons were cash vs. accrual and many others. Now I am the sole person in the company. So being a C became too demanding. One of my biggest pet peeves was the IRS forcing you to zero out the coffers yearly. It made more sense to take all the money at the end of the year. Pay my personal taxes and then loan the net back to the company. nasty games,

Not sure that the decline of the corporate portion of the taxes is due to slimmer margins. After all, taxes should be on the net profit. I think that lobbying has become more efficient over the years. It is not the small companies that do not pay their fair share. They do not have the money to employ tax evasion specialists.

One more data point:

United States Corporate Profits - 2022 Data - 2023 Forecast - 1950-2021 Historical

Corporate profits in the United States increased 0.8 percent to USD 2.54 trillion in the third quarter of 2022, following a 6.2 percent gain in the previous period and compared with preliminary estimates of a 0.2 percent drop. Net cash flow with inventory valuation adjustment, the internal funds...

tradingeconomics.com

or in a chart form:

I think they could contribute more.

Ries · Monday at 6:45 AM

While you armchair economists solve all the problems of the world, I was reading this article on how manufacturing is being affected right now by higher energy prices in Europe.
While the headline and the first paragraph is pretty doom and gloom, by the end they admit that the plant shutdowns are mostly temporary, that the governments are figuring out how to make sure industry gets reasonable prices, and the actual jobs lost so far in in pretty small numbers- 441 lay-offs at an aluminum oxide producer in Tulcea, Romania in June; 300 at a plant in Žiar nad Hronom in Slovakia by the end 2022; and 350 at a ceramic tiles manufacturer in Poland.
I am pretty sure if the numbers were in the tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands, they would have a lot more examples.
I use some of the glass tumblers made in the Duralex factory every day at home, and they are a great product. Simple, sturdy, and well worth the premium over crappy chinese versions. Been using em for years. Happy to hear that the plant will be back in production in April.
Seems like another one of those tempest in a commode kind of forecasts- everything is going to go to hell, and then, well, oops, it didnt.

Is this the end of Made in Europe?

From glass-makers to paper producers, European industries face a struggle to survive. What if they don’t make it?

www.politico.eu

dcsipo · Monday at 8:06 AM

Ries said:
Seems like another one of those tempest in a commode kind of forecasts- everything is going to go to hell, and then, well, oops, it didnt.

Y2K? all over again? Except in economics?

Ox · Monday at 8:09 AM

Well, I gotta say, I am awfully busy for a January!
Not sure where this crash is that they have been promissing.

-------------------

Think Snow Eh!
Ox

standardparts · Monday at 9:07 AM

Ries said:
While you armchair economists solve all the problems of the world, I was reading this article on how manufacturing is being affected right now by higher energy prices in Europe.
While the headline and the first paragraph is pretty doom and gloom, by the end they admit that the plant shutdowns are mostly temporary, that the governments are figuring out how to make sure industry gets reasonable prices, and the actual jobs lost so far in in pretty small numbers- 441 lay-offs at an aluminum oxide producer in Tulcea, Romania in June; 300 at a plant in Žiar nad Hronom in Slovakia by the end 2022; and 350 at a ceramic tiles manufacturer in Poland.
I am pretty sure if the numbers were in the tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands, they would have a lot more examples.
I use some of the glass tumblers made in the Duralex factory every day at home, and they are a great product. Simple, sturdy, and well worth the premium over crappy chinese versions. Been using em for years. Happy to hear that the plant will be back in production in April.
Seems like another one of those tempest in a commode kind of forecasts- everything is going to go to hell, and then, well, oops, it didnt.

Is this the end of Made in Europe?

From glass-makers to paper producers, European industries face a struggle to survive. What if they don’t make it?

www.politico.eu

"While you armchair economists solve all the problems of the world, I was reading this article.........." That made me laugh....

michiganbuck · Monday at 9:24 AM

OT..Re: the USA economy.
Back when we had duties against communist countries I was way better off than I am now..Raising the communist countries' economies at my/our expense and loss of jobs did not work.
Government bozos getting side money and the like likely took a big bite out of my buying power also.
Going away from real money also did not work. The 10-cent cup of coffee likely soon will be 3 bucks.

and when the whole world's population comes to the USA there will be standing room only and the working class will be in the poor house...Ops in the poor tent.

Bill D · Monday at 10:27 AM

I hear Paris Hilton will run against trump in the republican primary. She is half his age with more energy, never gone bankrupt, never stiffed business partners, better off financially (with similar starting inheritances), better tv shows, far better social skills and not a draft dodger. She has not lied about graduating for college.
This is not to be confused with her 2020 song!
Bill D

standardparts · Monday at 11:56 AM

Bill D said:
I hear Paris Hilton will run against trump in the republican primary. She is half his age with more energy, never gone bankrupt, never stiffed business partners, better off financially (with similar starting inheritances), better tv shows, far better social skills and not a draft dodger. She has not lied about graduating for college.
This is not to be confused with her 2020 song!
Bill D

No doubt you read that in the New York Times?

I keep hearing that this winter will be bad for manufacturing in Europe.

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