How will China's new airliner fair?

Comatose said:

The first decade of them will be built with CFM engines, same as a 737. So yeah, I would bet a lot of money on these being more reliable than anything Russia has ever or will ever make.

Airframes aren't _that_ complicated. It's the engines that are always hard in aviation.

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Tell that to the guy designing the wings. I wonder who's wings they copied?

plastikdreams said:

No way I would fly on a Chinese plane with pirated software controlling it...not a chance.

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Yeah that 737 max software was awesome!

Comatose said:

Airframes aren't _that_ complicated. It's the engines that are always hard in aviation.

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Well, none of the majors make the engines, rather they all source them from a limited number of suppliers ( P&W, GE, RR etc ) so the engine reliability should not need to be an issue.

Airframes OTOH .... me thinks most of the disasters or close calls of the past were primarily related to things other than engines, so yes, airframes might just be more important to the bird staying in the air.

moonlight machine said:

Tell that to the guy designing the wings. I wonder who's wings they copied?

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It's possible they might have hired Western design Engineers, so whatever company they worked for might be reflected in the design. Or they just stole it. Via mal-ware, or via a Chinese national working at one of the major manufacturers

As for the Aero side of it, quite likley they might have stolen the shape, the airfoil, control surface information, and probably all the wind tunnel results as well. So didn't have to do the 2-5 years of wind tunnel testing to get to a flying prototype.

triumph406 said:

As for the Aero side of it, quite likley they might have stolen the shape, the airfoil, control surface information, and probably all the wind tunnel results as well. So didn't have to do the 2-5 years of wind tunnel testing to get to a flying prototype.

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Actually, all of that knowledge is readily available, no need for theft. Boeing does not have a patent on air. And McDonnell-Douglas had contractors building large assemblies for them in the northeast at least twenty-five years ago; they probably didn't just quit when MickeyD went bellyup.

We used to gossip in that walkaround area in the aft section of a 747.

That was the good old dayes, times have changed, they don't actually need us anymore, you have no idea what china factories look like these days.

And oh yeah, I've been in shops that are joint ventures with pratt & whitney. Not the big engines but commuter jet size.

Nobody has to "steal" anything. Just give the job to guys already doing it for foreign companies.

SeymourDumore said:

Well, none of the majors make the engines, rather they all source them from a limited number of suppliers ( P&W, GE, RR etc ) so the engine reliability should not need to be an issue.

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Do you really think the Chinese airlines will perform the required maintenance intervals on the engines as specified by the OEMs? I doubt it. Engines do not last forever.

Philabuster said:

Do you really think the Chinese airlines will perform the required maintenance intervals on the engines as specified by the OEMs? I doubt it. Engines do not last forever.

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Air China has one of the best safety records in the entire world so it doesn't seem like what you "think" has much bearing on the question, does it ?

The airframe should be just fine. Aluminum airframes were pretty much figured by the 70s. They didn't have to steal anything, its all been published and well documented for decades. Was a smart choice to not make it out of composites, that would make it alot more complicated to design and build. I imagine being used by state run airlines they don't need to chase every bit of weight/efficiency.

I'd be more worried about the software, but being able to start fresh with modern software and coding techniques rather than having decades of legacy crap to worry about I'm sure is very beneficial.

Philabuster said:

Do you really think the Chinese airlines will perform the required maintenance intervals on the engines as specified by the OEMs? I doubt it. Engines do not last forever.

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Boeing has/had a 737 completion center in China in partnership with COMAC. So I guess if so inclined you could just spend time copying whatever you wanted while the aircraft was in your possession..
It's a pretty good bet that all the major airlines who fly in and out of China have some level of maintenance accomplished by Chinese companie so compliance with U.S. regs is already being done.

Upside us that the CFM engines which are the only option are assembled at a GE owned facility in Indiana. Info on the 'net says flight management systems are sourced from Western companies like Collins and Honeywell.

And....Who knows...just like most everything THAT USED TO BE MADE IN AMERICA Boeing might decide it makes more sense to use China to handle commercial aircraft production and focus on the military end of things.

Philabuster said:

Do you really think the Chinese airlines will perform the required maintenance intervals on the engines as specified by the OEMs? I doubt it. Engines do not last forever.

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It is very possible the condition of the engines will be monitored 'real time' remotely by the manufacturer. It's been done that way by major airline for decades. Look up 'AHM Boeing'.
So yeah....no doubt in my mind that engine maint will be carried out in compliance with the engine manufacturers requirements.

If they can put a space station into orbit and send probes to the moon and mars they can certainly build aeroplanes, I just wonder what took them so long, they've been working on it for fifteen years.

Terry Keeley said:

If they can put a space station into orbit and send probes to the moon and mars they can certainly build aeroplanes, I just wonder what took them so long, they've been working on it for fifteen years.

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Good question...'Perspective(?)' The Boeing 787 consumed about 8 years to get certified, and even then deliveries have been delayed due to quality issues---and Boeing probably knows more about aircraft production manufacturing than anyone else--So it's possible China has come a long ways in fifteen years.

China likely had other priorities that ranked higher on the "honey-doo" list.
Can't do much modern airliner production without the pre-requisite technological/industrial infrastructure...which also costs a whole lot of money when you need to acquire it from outside your own country, especially dancing around politics, sanctions/embargos, and most certainly industrial espionage (everyone does it)

Found a good article sort of detailing China's progress and motivation regarding commercial aircraft production. Have no way of knowing how accurate it is--like most am just another armchair observer.

Philabuster said:

Do you really think the Chinese airlines will perform the required maintenance intervals on the engines as specified by the OEMs? I doubt it. Engines do not last forever.

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I was not thinking about maintenance as a shoddy crew is a shoddy crew no matter where it is.
It's more like the little details in the airframe and support structures that make a difference.
All I can say is that sometimes the most benign looking simple thing seems to be not only over engineered, but very much scrutinized at all steps of the manufacturing process.
Surely there is a good reason for it.

standardparts said:

Found a good article sort of detailing China's progress and motivation

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At least it wasn't too ridiculous but Aryan Argwal hasn't got an effing clue. He has no idea what "the government" really thinks. No one does except them. They don't broadcast that stuff like little bitches and they sure as hell don't tell foreign "experts" what their plans are.

Airplanes don't support that many people so it wasn't a big priority. And they needed to spend some of the dollars they make or it'd look really really bad one-sided. What else can they buy from the US ? (chicken feet, I know) And there's two manufacturers, one in Europe and one in the US so they could bounce them off each other. It just wasn't a big priority.

Now, however, with the chips thing and Mr Biden's and Mr Trump's antagonistic attitudes, and all the propaganda and lies (there are NOT thousands of people dying in hospitals, I can put up photos, it's one giant stupid lie) ... anyway, it's becoming obvious that at least for the near future China has to look out more for itself. Hence, bigger emphasis on making their own planes, at least for domestic use. Maybe end up selling some to Russia and Iran and other places the US has tried to embargo. I can't see them wanting to compete with Boeing and Airbus internationally. There's no reason to.

^ Air China doesn't have one of the world's best safety records because they have "shoddy crews". Get real.

Every year the Chinese get better and better-just like the Japs.

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A couple of major differences in culture though. The Japanese are a more honorable people, take immense self-and-team pride in their work, and compete vigorously but honestly.

Chinese culture is different; they want to win at all costs, and cutting corners or being somewhat dishonest is not deemed an issue as long as the results are gained.

I doubt the US FAA will ever approve a Chinese airliner. And as cheap as Americans are, I doubt many would want to fly on one.

ToolCat

ghost of christmas past said:

At least it wasn't too ridiculous but Aryan Argwal hasn't got an effing clue. He has no idea what "the government" really thinks. No one does except them. They don't broadcast that stuff like little bitches and they sure as hell don't tell foreign "experts" what their plans are.

Airplanes don't support that many people so it wasn't a big priority. And they needed to spend some of the dollars they make or it'd look really really bad one-sided. What else can they buy from the US ? (chicken feet, I know) And there's two manufacturers, one in Europe and one in the US so they could bounce them off each other. It just wasn't a big priority.

Now, however, with the chips thing and Mr Biden's and Mr Trump's antagonistic attitudes, and all the propaganda and lies (there are NOT thousands of people dying in hospitals, I can put up photos, it's one giant stupid lie) ... anyway, it's becoming obvious that at least for the near future China has to look out more for itself. Hence, bigger emphasis on making their own planes, at least for domestic use. Maybe end up selling some to Russia and Iran and other places the US has tried to embargo. I can't see them wanting to compete with Boeing and Airbus internationally. There's no reason to.

^ Air China doesn't have one of the world's best safety records because they have "shoddy crews". Get real.

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Your quote left out....."Have no way of knowing how accurate it is-"...as well as....
"China likely had other priorities that ranked higher on the "honey-doo" list.
Can't do much modern airliner production without the pre-requisite technological/industrial infrastructure...".....as well as...."dancing around politics, sanctions/embargos, and most certainly industrial espionage".

As far as "shoddy crews" go...a person would have to do some digging into post crash analysis to come to a decision regarding aircrew training and performance.

And.....
One of the issues regarding any country allowing an airline system to operate that kills people is that those from outside your country that you depend on for a whole lot of support often start refusing to fly another countries air carriers due to safety concerns. Of course one alternative is to use air charters or company aircraft that offer safety and security but that gets expensive.

My take on the whole thing is that China out of a sense of necessity will succeed in building commercial aircraft to fulfill their own requirements and ultimately those of other Nations and they will succeed no matter what they have to do. China has no other choice at this point.

Consider that just about a week ago the U.S. air traffic system came to a halt because of alleged obsolete electronic technology. As always those of us in the United States should place demands on our own leadership to return this country to a leader in providing basic services to it's citizens. If I had to guess many U.S. and EU companies are chomping at the bit, and spending a ton of money lobbying, to allow them to participate in China's aviation manufacturing industry.

ghost of christmas past said:

Now, however, with the chips thing and Mr Biden's and Mr Trump's antagonistic attitudes, and all the propaganda and lies (there are NOT thousands of people dying in hospitals, I can put up photos, it's one giant stupid lie) ... anyway, it's becoming obvious that at least for the near future China has to look out more for itself. Hence, bigger emphasis on making their own planes, at least for domestic use. Maybe end up selling some to Russia and Iran and other places the US has tried to embargo. I can't see them wanting to compete with Boeing and Airbus internationally. There's no reason to.

^ Air China doesn't have one of the world's best safety records because they have "shoddy crews". Get real.

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Well, for one thing their automobile industry just got a bit of a boost.
Since noone in the west wanted them and Russia now can't build their own, so they export them there and simply slap a Russian label on them.
Guess they can do the same with the airplanes as well.

As far as the shoddy crew, read the damned sentence! That was not at all aimed at China, rather to state the obvious that even the best and most reliable turns to shit if not maintained, no matter where!

ghost of christmas past said:

(there are NOT thousands of people dying in hospitals, I can put up photos, it's one giant stupid lie) ... anyway, it's becoming obvious that at least for the near future China has to look out more for itself.

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China's push to become technologically self sufficient predates both Trump and Biden. Their stated goal is to break western hegemony. Whether that is a noble or a scurrilous plan depends on no small part on whether one benefits from western hegemony.

There ARE thousands of people dying in hospitals, though, unless the Chinese government can't be believed either.


China is being very aggressive in soft and hard power diplomacy, especially in Africa. They want to fill the power vacuum left by the collapse of Russia on the world stage. That's their right, but like the soviets before them, they'll need to be able to offer all the conveniences of modern life, including airliners. If swapping allegiances from the USA to China means that everyone has to travel by rail North Korea style, then that is a tougher sell.

Post Taiwan war, there's going to be a lot less east-west trade, regardless of the outcome. One of the countries that is going to be involved is doing more to prepare for that eventuality.

I couldn't speak for aircraft design. But I've been on Chinese airlines inside of China. Very reminiscent of US airplanes and service of the 1960's and '70's, like glamorous or prestigious. All the stewardesses young and attractive, very cute outfits with just above the knee skirts. Everything clean and neat, with exceptional and pleasant service. Not like the constant attitude and stress you have flying here.

The major airports as modern and clean as any of the best I've been to.

While China may have rep on certain manufacturing quality, my take is they were quite serious on infrastructure, and transportation in particular. An example being subway systems I saw in Shanghai, Beijing, and the ShenZhen/Hongkong area. So well thought out, clean, and super safe. Glass barriers in front of all the the stations where you get on and off, you could not jump onto the tracks if you wanted to.

Now take a look at the NY subway system. . . All the highway robbery and taxes there, and they can't figure out how to keep people safe ? Christ there's lunatics still shoving people on the tracks there. How has that not been fixed ?

Comatose said:

The first decade of them will be built with CFM engines, same as a 737. So yeah, I would bet a lot of money on these being more reliable than anything Russia has ever or will ever make.

Airframes aren't _that_ complicated. It's the engines that are always hard in aviation.

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And the turbines are only at the level they are because of significant collaboration between Royce, PW, Orenda et al. To start from scratch is a corpo suicide mission. Standing on the shoulders of giants and all that.

Too bad the old-boy OEM’s are too busy circle jerking with the FAA insiders on their mountains of cash. Let’s hope some competition forces some competent innovation (not MAX innovation).